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Abstract This paper synthesizes the contemporary challenges for the sustainability of the social-environmental system (SES) across a geographically, environmentally, and geopolitically diverse region—the Asian Drylands Belt (ADB). This region includes 18 political entities, covering 10.3% of global land area and 30% of total global drylands. At the present time, the ADB is confronted with a unique set of environmental and socioeconomic changes including water shortage-related environmental challenges and dramatic institutional changes since the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. The SES of the ADB is assessed using a conceptual framework rooted in the three pillars of sustainability science: social, economic, and ecological systems. The complex dynamics are explored with biophysical, socioeconomic, institutional, and local context-dependent mechanisms with a focus on institutions and land use and land cover change (LULCC) as important drivers of SES dynamics. This paper also discusses the following five pressing, practical challenges for the sustainability of the ADB SES: (a) reduced water quantity and quality under warming, drying, and escalating extreme events, (b) continued, if not intensifying, geopolitical conflicts, (c) volatile, uncertain, and shifting socioeconomic structures, (d) globalization and cross-country influences, and (e) intensification and shifts in LULCC. To meet the varied challenges across the region, place-based, context-dependent transdisciplinary approaches are needed to focus on the human-environment interactions within and between regional landscapes with explicit consideration of specific forcings and regulatory mechanisms. Future work focused on this region should also assess the role of the following mechanisms that may moderate SES dynamics: socioeconomic regulating mechanisms, biophysical regulating mechanisms, regional and national institutional regulating mechanisms, and localized institutional regulating mechanisms. 

Abstract Plant elemental content can vary up to 1,000‐fold across grasslands, with implications for the herbivores the plants feed. We contrast the regulation, in grasses and forbs, of 12 elements essential to plants and animals (henceforth plant‐essential), 7 essential to animals but not plants (animal‐essential) and 6 with no known metabolic function (nonessential). Four hypotheses accounted for up to two thirds of the variation in grass and forb ionomes across 54 North American grasslands. Consistent with the supply‐side hypothesis, the plant‐essential ionome of both forbs and grasses tracked soil availability. Grass ionomes were more likely to harvest even nonessential elements like Cd and Sr. Consistent with the grazing hypothesis, cattle‐grazed grasslands also accumulated a handful of metals like Cu and Cr. Consistent with the NP‐catalysis hypothesis, increases in the macronutrients N and P in grasses were associated with higher densities of cofactors like Zn and Cu. The plant‐essential elements of forbs, in contrast, consistently varied as per the nutrient‐dilution hypothesis—there was a decrease in elemental parts per million with increasing local carbohydrate production. Combined, these data fit a working hypothesis that grasses maintain lower elemental densities and survive on nutrient‐poor patches by opportunistically harvesting soil nutrients. In contrast, nutrient‐rich forbs use episodes of high precipitation and temperature to build new carbohydrate biomass, raising leaves higher to compete for light, but diluting the nutrient content in every bite of tissue. Herbivores of forbs may thus be particularly prone to increases inpCO₂via nutrient dilution. 

Abstract. Relationships between land use and water quality are complex with interdependencies, feedbacks, and legacy effects. Most river water quality studies have assessed catchment land use as areal coverage, but here, we hypothesize and test whether land use intensity – the inputs (fertilizer, livestock) and activities (vegetation removal) of land use – is a better predictor of environmental impact. We use New Zealand (NZ) as a case study because it has had one of the highest rates of agricultural land intensification globally over recent decades. We interpreted water quality state and trends for the 26 years from 1989 to 2014 in the National Rivers Water Quality Network (NRWQN) – consisting of 77 sites on 35 mostly large river systems. To characterize land use intensity, we analyzed spatial and temporal changes in livestock density and land disturbance (i.e., bare soil resulting from vegetation loss by either grazing or forest harvesting) at the catchment scale, as well as fertilizer inputs at the national scale. Using simple multivariate statistical analyses across the 77 catchments, we found that median visual water clarity was best predicted inversely by areal coverage of intensively managed pastures. The primary predictor for all four nutrient variables (TN, NO_x, TP, DRP), however, was cattle density, with plantation forest coverage as the secondary predictor variable. While land disturbance was not itself a strong predictor of water quality, it did help explain outliers of land use–water quality relationships. From 1990 to 2014, visual clarity significantly improved in 35 out of 77 (34∕77) catchments, which we attribute mainly to increased dairy cattle exclusion from rivers (despite dairy expansion) and the considerable decrease in sheep numbers across the NZ landscape, from 58 million sheep in 1990 to 31 million in 2012. Nutrient concentrations increased in many of NZ's rivers with dissolved oxidized nitrogen significantly increasing in 27∕77 catchments, which we largely attribute to increased cattle density and legacy nutrients that have built up on intensively managed grasslands and plantation forests since the 1950s and are slowly leaking to the rivers. Despite recent improvements in water quality for some NZ rivers, these legacy nutrients and continued agricultural intensification are expected to pose broad-scale environmental problems for decades to come. 

Abstract Across the globe, temperatures are predicted to increase with consequences for many taxonomic groups. Arthropods are particularly at risk as temperature imposes physiological constraints on growth, survival, and reproduction. Given that arthropods may be disproportionately affected in a warmer climate—the question becomes which taxa are vulnerable and can we predict the supposed winners and losers of climate change? To address this question, we resurveyed 33 ant communities, quantifying 20‐yr differences in the incidence of 28 genera. Each North American ant community was surveyed with 30 1‐m²plots, and the incidence of each genus across the 30 plots was used to estimate change. From the original surveys in 1994–1997 to the resurveys in 2016–2017, temperature increased on average 1°C (range, −0.4°C to 2.5°C) and ~64% of ant genera increased in more than half of the sampled communities. To test Thermal Performance Theory's prediction that genera with higher average thermal limits will tend to accumulate at the expense of those with lower limits, we quantified critical thermal maxima (CT_max: the high temperatures at which they lose muscle control) and minima (CT_min: the low temperatures at which ants first become inactive) for common genera at each site. Consistent with prediction, we found a positive decelerating relationship between CT_maxand the proportion of sites in which a genus had increased. CT_min, by contrast, was not a useful predictor of change. There was a strong positive correlation (r = 0.85) between the proportion of sites where a genus was found with higher incidence after 20 yr and the average difference in number of plots occupied per site, suggesting genera with high CT_maxvalues tended to occupy more plots at more sites after 20 yr. Thermal functional traits like CT_maxhave thus proved useful in predicting patterns of long‐term community change in a dominant, diverse insect taxon.